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Tesla tops facebook market value as RBC analyst buckles

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Tesla inc. Now commands a bigger market valuation than social-media giant facebook inc., with the latest jolt to the electric-vehicle maker’s share price coming from the capitulation of a long-time wall street bear on thursday.

Elon musk-led tesla has been on a stunning run over the past year, recording a 743% gain in its stock in 2020 as the company blew past several key milestones, got added to the S&P 500 index and benefited from a growing view among consumers and market watchers that electric cars will dominate the future auto industry.

After thursday’s advance, tesla’s market capitalization stands at about $774 billion, right above facebook’s $765 billion. Facebook shares closed up 2.1% in new york, while tesla rose 7.9% to close at an all-time high of $816.04.

Tesla shares are on a 10-day winning streak, the longest since april and only the second time since its 2010 initial public offering it’s gained so many days in a row.

That relentless surge has forced wall street into a perpetual game of catch-up, with analysts’ average price target still far below the current stock price. On thursday, RBC capital markets analyst joseph spak upgraded tesla to the equivalent of a hold rating from a previous sell recommendation, saying he got the stock “ completely wrong.”

Spak raised his 2025 delivery estimate for tesla to 1.7 million cars from 1.3 million, and said his biggest mistake was underestimating the company’s ability to take advantage of its stock price to raise capital and fund growth or acquisitions. The analyst more than doubled his price target to $700 from $339.

— with assistance by ryan vlastelica

Jpmorgan says the S&P 500 could surge 25% in 2021 - and lists 6 sectors poised to outperform next year

Jpmorgan on wednesday lifted its S&P 500 target for 2021 by 25% from current levels, to 4,600.

Strategists expect that stocks that were most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic will be the biggest beneficiaries of investor inflows next year.

Most of the market upside will take place in the first six months of the year, but the backdrop will last into the second half, jpmorgan said.

The bank listed six sectors that it expects to outperform in 2021.

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The S&P 500 could soar as much as 25%, to 4,600, in 2021 as the outlook for equities clears after an extended period of elevated risks, jpmorgan said in a note wednesday.

"we see the S&P 500 reaching 4,000 by early next year," strategists led by dubravko lakos-bujas wrote. "our base case S&P 500 price target for 2021 is 4,400 with a range of 4,200 to 4,600."

The bank expects that most of the market upside will take place in the first half of the year but said the backdrop should last into the second half when a fuller recovery is priced in.

The S&P 500 on thursday traded near record highs, at about 3,670 points.

Strategists expect investors to be more selective with equities in the second half of the year as the COVID-19 recovery sweeps across portfolio positioning. They said that value stocks remained their preference and that stocks that were beaten down by the COVID-19 pandemic would be the largest beneficiaries next year.

Jpmorgan listed six sectors and themes set to outperform in 2021:

Consumer discretionary

"prior to the COVID-19 shock, consumer durables saw a significant headwind related to US / china tariffs," the note said. "if there is any easing on the trade front by the biden administration, this would be another source of margin expansion for the sector. This sector is our top pick for 2021."

"given the sharp underperformance, this sector is the most under-owned and universally hated, based on our conversations with investors," the strategists wrote. "executive action remains an area of concern for names levered to federal lands/pipelines, but political gridlock should cap broader regulatory changes."

Financials

"while revenue growth and credit concerns remain, a combination of fiscal and monetary support should sustain an easier credit environment for businesses and consumers in the short-to-medium term," jpmorgan said. "in addition, political gridlock should limit potential for corporate tax hikes and sweeping regulatory changes."

Healthcare

"healthcare providers/services are potential beneficiaries from pent-up medical demand (e.G. Deferred/elective procedures, etc.) and will have easier comps in 2021," the note said. "despite a global slowdown in 2020, healthcare is expected to deliver another year of strong and healthy earnings growth of 7% (vs. Tech 6% and S&P 500 -15%) based on consensus estimates."

Technology/semiconductors

"we favor names that have not been primary beneficiaries of the work-from-home trend and maintain a higher conviction on more cyclical semis/tech hardware (vs. Software)," the strategists said. "semis in particular should benefit from demand recovery supported by global economic rebound, cloud/capex growth, production increases for 5G smartphones/autos and normalizing supply chain."

Bond proxies

"with further confirmation of ongoing economic recovery (eg jobs, GDP, etc.), we expect rising inflation and long-term rates to trigger further rebalancing among equity investors out of bond proxies into more cyclical industries," the note said.

First bank reveals bonus pool and it's not bad

The bonus whispers have begun. If they're to be trusted, jpmorgan traders can expect a 20% rise in bonuses but jpmorgan bankers can't, and 'flat will be the new up' at bank of america.

One bank, however, has moved beyond the whisper stage. Today is fourth quarter results day at royal bank of canada, and we know for sure that the overall bonus pool at the canadian bank is up by around 5%.

RBC allocated CA$6bn (US$4.6bn) to variable compensation across the bank for 2020, up from CA$5.7bn for 2019.

In RBC's capital markets business, which includes investment bankers, salespeople and traders and support staff, the message on bonuses also looks promising. Overall compensation (salaries plus bonuses) per head at RBC capital market rose from CA$339k last year to CA$348k this year.

Most significantly, though, the bank increased the value of the 'capital markets compensation plan awards' it granted this year by a very healthy 23%, to CA$442m.

Will RBC capital markets employees be happy with their windfalls? Maybe, although fixed income traders' expectations might be hard to meet given this year's 50% increase in their revenues compared to 2019. One insider at the bank said that most people in capital markets will be paid flat, suggesting the increase in the bonus pool will be very targeted towards top performers.

What's also notable today is that - as at barclays - this year's strong performance hasn't prevented RBC capital markets from cutting staff. In the fourth quarter, headcount at the unit fell by 290 people, a drop of 6%. It's a reminder that bonus pools are meaningless if you're no longer around when they're handed out.

What will the stock market return in 2021?

2020 was a wild ride in the stock market, with the S&P 500 dropping 35% early in the year and then rebounding by 60% to notch nearly an 18% total return (as of 12/28/20).

The double-digit return is especially remarkable given that during 2020 a global pandemic killed 325,000 americans and 1.8 million people worldwide. The economic effects of the pandemic were huge as hundreds of thousands of companies went out of business, tens of millions of people lost their jobs, unemployment spiked to over 10%, the U.S. Economy shrank by an annualized rate of 31.4% in the second quarter and is on pace to contract over 3% for the year.

Such a crazy year in the economy and stock market highlights an important lesson about predictions: they are worthless, and we shouldn’t pay any attention to them. Case-in-point, wall street’s 2020 predictions were ludicrously bad.

How bad were wall street’s predictions for 2020?

One year ago, prognosticators predicted a stable, growing economy and single-digit stock market returns. According to the new york times, “in december 2019, the median consensus on wall street was that the S&P 500 would rise 2.7 percent in the 2020 calendar year.”

Specifically, these were some of the predictions of the biggest wall street firms:

Citigroup: “we are not forecasting a global (or U.S.) recession in 2020” as the “global economy appears to be stabilizing.” for the U.S. Stock market, citi predicted “upper single-digit returns” and said that “value stocks are largely expected to outperform their growth counterparts.”

JP morgan predicted that there was little chance of extreme market swings and that we’d see “mid-to-high-single-digit returns for stocks” in 2020. Like citigroup, JP morgan recommended that investors overweight value stocks as they would outperform growth stocks in 2020.

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Goldman sachs expected a 3.4% increase in GDP and “continued labor market improvement.” goldman strategist david kostin predicted that “a durable profit cycle and continued economic expansion will lift the S&P 500 index by 5% to 3,250 in early 2020. However, rising political and policy uncertainty will keep the index range-bound for most of next year.”

Morgan stanley predicted that the economy would grow by 2.3% and that active managers would outperform the indices in 2020. They also predicted about a 4% decline in the market in 2020 and that international stocks would outperform U.S. Stocks.

These predictions by the titans of wall street were comprehensively wrong:

Market returns: the 2.7% consensus forecast undershot the 2020 stock market price return by more than 10%.

Value vs. Growth: not only did value underperform growth, but growth stocks outperformed value by nearly 40%! An investor who followed J.P. Morgan’s and citigroup’s advice to overweight value would have found it very costly.

International vs. Domestic stocks: U.S. Stocks continued their dominance, outperforming non-U.S. Stocks by nearly 10%, so to have followed morgan stanley’s advice to shift funds from domestic to international stocks would also have been costly.

Active vs. Passive: active managers struggled in the face of the market volatility and most trailed the index. Predictions that active managers can better navigate choppy waters have yet to be realized.

Economic growth: none of these firms predicted the global recession or that the fed would engage in rate-cutting and massive monetary stimulus.

We can forgive forecasters for not predicting a global pandemic, but their revised forecasts once they knew what was happening confirm how truly useless market predictions are. In april when the economic effects of the pandemic were becoming clear, a survey by bloomberg found that forecasters had reduced their 2020 year-end prediction for the S&P 500 to an average of -11%, almost the opposite of what happened, and 28 points off the mark.

Therefore, there are two main lessons to be drawn from the expert predictions of 2020: (1) predicting the future is tough because unexpected events such as global pandemics, wars, and natural disasters regularly occur which render predictions inapplicable, and (2) even when unexpected events become known, predicting how the stock market will react to such events is problematic. For more on these points, see my article from this past june titled why the stock market doesn’t make any sense.

2021: prediction redux

Last year at this time I published my prediction for what the stock market might return in 2020: it would likely be up but it was possible that it would be down. I made this prediction based on historical data that the market is up about two-thirds of the time no matter what happened the prior year.

My prediction for what the market will return in 2021 is the same as my 2020 prediction: it will probably be up, but it might be down.

While such a non-specific prediction is unsatisfying, it is about as precise as anyone can be about predicting market returns. Predictions that are more exact than that cannot be accurate and mislead investors.

What should investors do if they can’t trust predictions?

We all crave certainty, and we want to know what the stock market will return in the future so that we can make profitable investment decisions. But since next year’s market return is not knowable, there are better strategies than paying attention to deceptively accurate predictions. These include:

Structuring all-weather portfolios that will share in the upside when the market is up, but preserve value when it is down.

Having an adequate margin of safety to ride through down markets.

Taking a long-term view of the markets and not looking often at our portfolios.

We’re all better off spending less time reading market news and drinking from the firehose of financial and economic data, which is mostly noise, and devoting more time to reading investment wisdom. Above all else, we should ignore experts’ forecasts.

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